Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
2
No 50%
$2.2K
$40.84
Research grade
AvoidNo at 95%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 93.7¢ | $4.3K | $2.2K | +$40.92 | 64% 2361-1315 (3676) |
RA ratedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.7¢ | $0.25 | $0.17 | -$0.08 | 29% 2847-6939 (9786) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.