Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 27

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$21.31

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 99.4¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,017

Combined PnL+$21.98

Yes1 trader

Total Value$6.69

Total Shares1,115

Combined PnL-$0.67

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 97.1¢	$7.4K	$3.6K	+$9.87	65% 2249-1231 (3480)
balthazar	Noavg 98.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$12.19	62% 18200-10969 (29169)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$44.07	$43.99	-$0.08	32% 3794-7915 (11709)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$7.36	$6.69	-$0.67	20% 521-2114 (2635)

bipbipbop

Invested

$7,419.99

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$9.87

Record

65%

2249-1231 (3480)

balthazar

Invested

$1,333.22

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$12.19

Record

62%

18200-10969 (29169)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$44.07

Value

$43.99

PnL

-$0.08

Record

32%

3794-7915 (11709)

LinaBell🦊CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.36

Value

$6.69

PnL

-$0.67

Record

20%

521-2114 (2635)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.