Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $245 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$245.07
$0.7
99.7¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Mature
41h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $69.79 | $69.97 | +$0.17 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $60.69 | $60.85 | +$0.16 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $59.82 | $59.97 | +$0.15 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.99 | +$0.08 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $16.04 | $16.11 | +$0.12 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $8.16 | $8.19 | +$0.02 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$69.79
Value
$69.97
PnL
+$0.17
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$60.69
Value
$60.85
PnL
+$0.16
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$59.82
Value
$59.97
PnL
+$0.15
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.08
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
Invested
$16.04
Value
$16.11
PnL
+$0.12
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$8.16
Value
$8.19
PnL
+$0.02
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.