Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $270 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$270.02
$1.18
99.5¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Mature
41h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $69.72 | $69.97 | +$0.25 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $67.92 | $68.16 | +$0.24 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $60.62 | $60.85 | +$0.23 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $39.87 | $40.23 | +$0.36 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.88 | $29.99 | +$0.11 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$69.72
Value
$69.97
PnL
+$0.25
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$67.92
Value
$68.16
PnL
+$0.24
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$60.62
Value
$60.85
PnL
+$0.23
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$39.87
Value
$40.23
PnL
+$0.36
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$29.88
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.11
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.