Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $505 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 100%
$504.82
$6.01
98.8¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Mature
40h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.7¢ | $243.48 | $244.03 | +$0.55 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $70.87 | $72.3 | +$1.43 | 54% 553-469 (1022) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $68.03 | $69.95 | +$1.92 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $34.73 | $35.56 | +$0.83 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $29.16 | $29.99 | +$0.83 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $29.79 | $29.99 | +$0.2 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $13.93 | $13.95 | +$0.02 | 53% 5656-5081 (10737) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $7.96 | $8.19 | +$0.23 | 40% 1455-2158 (3613) |
LucerysInvested
$243.48
Value
$244.03
PnL
+$0.55
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$70.87
Value
$72.3
PnL
+$1.43
Record
54%
553-469 (1022)
balthazar<$100Invested
$68.03
Value
$69.95
PnL
+$1.92
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$34.73
Value
$35.56
PnL
+$0.83
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
Invested
$29.16
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.83
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$29.79
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.2
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$13.93
Value
$13.95
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
5656-5081 (10737)
Invested
$7.96
Value
$8.19
PnL
+$0.23
Record
40%
1455-2158 (3613)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.