Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$1.94
-$56.24
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 50%
Freshness
Late
56h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XZ xzsaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $9.75 | $0.64 | -$9.05 | 8% 4-44 (48) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $17.39 | $0.39 | -$16.81 | 40% 6572-9858 (16430) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.51 | $0.3 | -$9.83 | 38% 7184-11806 (18990) |
 ElonSpamCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $10.78 | $0.3 | -$9.65 | 40% 1556-2355 (3911) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $5.74 | $0.19 | -$5.56 | 17% 4506-22075 (26581) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.09 | $0.09 | -$2.85 | 25% 483-1460 (1943) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $3.35 | $0.03 | -$2.51 | 58% 21404-15543 (36947) |
Invested
$9.75
Value
$0.64
PnL
-$9.05
Record
8%
4-44 (48)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$17.39
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$16.81
Record
40%
6572-9858 (16430)
Invested
$0.51
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$9.83
Record
38%
7184-11806 (18990)
ElonSpamCTR<$100Invested
$10.78
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$9.65
Record
40%
1556-2355 (3911)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$5.74
Value
$0.19
PnL
-$5.56
Record
17%
4506-22075 (26581)
Invested
$0.09
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$2.85
Record
25%
483-1460 (1943)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$2.51
Record
58%
21404-15543 (36947)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.