Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.8

Combined PnL

-$51.5

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$0.8

Total Shares1,590

Combined PnL-$51.5

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.51	$0.15	-$9.98	38% 7172-11790 (18962)
ElonSpamCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$10.78	$0.15	-$9.95	40% 1555-2349 (3904)
XZ xzsaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.67	$0.1	-$0.57	8% 4-44 (48)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$5.34	$0.09	-$5.25	17% 4501-22036 (26537)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$2.22	$0.06	-$2.16	28% 576-1486 (2062)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$0.06	$0.06	-$3.88	25% 471-1448 (1919)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$3.01	$0.05	-$2.96	40% 6547-9828 (16375)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.3	$0.04	-$2.78	27% 2536-6889 (9425)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$2.64	47% 3836-4297 (8133)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.78	$0.03	-$1.9	27% 598-1657 (2255)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$17.96	$0.02	-$8.94	54% 12531-10868 (23399)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.69	$0.01	-$0.48	17% 1350-6561 (7911)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$9.98

Record

38%

7172-11790 (18962)

ElonSpamCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.78

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$9.95

Record

40%

1555-2349 (3904)

xzsaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.57

Record

4-44 (48)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.34

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$5.25

Record

17%

4501-22036 (26537)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.22

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.16

Record

28%

576-1486 (2062)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.88

Record

25%

471-1448 (1919)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.01

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.96

Record

40%

6547-9828 (16375)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.78

Record

27%

2536-6889 (9425)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.64

Record

47%

3836-4297 (8133)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.9

Record

27%

598-1657 (2255)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.96

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$8.94

Record

54%

12531-10868 (23399)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.48

Record

17%

1350-6561 (7911)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.