Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.69

Combined PnL

-$35.56

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$0.69

Total Shares1,381

Combined PnL-$35.56

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.51	$0.15	-$9.98	38% 7155-11768 (18923)
ElonSpamCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$10.78	$0.15	-$9.95	40% 1555-2348 (3903)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$5.58	$0.12	-$5.46	17% 4496-22008 (26504)
XZ xzsaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.73	$0.08	-$0.64	8% 4-44 (48)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$1.67	$0.05	-$1.62	28% 576-1486 (2062)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.3	$0.04	-$2.78	27% 2525-6883 (9408)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	-$1.97	47% 3810-4268 (8078)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.78	$0.03	-$1.9	26% 580-1646 (2226)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.04	$0.03	-$0.02	34% 3324-6350 (9674)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.78	25% 467-1426 (1893)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.69	$0.01	-$0.45	17% 1328-6547 (7875)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$9.98

Record

38%

7155-11768 (18923)

ElonSpamCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.78

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$9.95

Record

40%

1555-2348 (3903)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.58

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$5.46

Record

17%

4496-22008 (26504)

xzsaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.73

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.64

Record

4-44 (48)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.62

Record

28%

576-1486 (2062)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.78

Record

27%

2525-6883 (9408)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.97

Record

47%

3810-4268 (8078)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.9

Record

26%

580-1646 (2226)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.02

Record

34%

3324-6350 (9674)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.78

Record

25%

467-1426 (1893)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.45

Record

17%

1328-6547 (7875)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.