Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $57 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

Total Value

$57.16

Combined PnL

$31.37

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$55.83

Total Shares56

Combined PnL+$53.86

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.31

Total Shares887

Combined PnL-$22.49

No — 27%Yes — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.96	$19.98	+$0.02	53% 23272-20444 (43716)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99¢	$24.38	$19.17	-$3.85	58% 21129-15368 (36497)
GO god83743894	Noavg 92¢	$206.73	$16.68	+$57.69	45% 10561-12883 (23444)
KO korda77CTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$303.99	$0.46	-$9.68	38% 7139-11756 (18895)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$5.34	$0.26	-$5.08	17% 4484-21727 (26211)
XZ xzsaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.88	$0.22	-$0.66	8% 4-44 (48)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.32	$0.13	-$1.2	29% 2495-6009 (8504)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.78	$0.09	-$0.7	27% 551-1528 (2079)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$50.76	$0.08	-$1.62	34% 3305-6330 (9635)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$1.41	$0.06	-$1.35	43% 2287-2977 (5264)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$2.84	$0.03	-$2.22	28% 575-1484 (2059)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.96

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

23272-20444 (43716)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.38

Value

$19.17

PnL

-$3.85

Record

58%

21129-15368 (36497)

god83743894

Invested

$206.73

Value

$16.68

PnL

+$57.69

Record

45%

10561-12883 (23444)

korda77CTR

Yes

Invested

$303.99

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$9.68

Record

38%

7139-11756 (18895)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.34

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$5.08

Record

17%

4484-21727 (26211)

xzsaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.66

Record

4-44 (48)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.32

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$1.2

Record

29%

2495-6009 (8504)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.7

Record

27%

551-1528 (2079)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.76

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$1.62

Record

34%

3305-6330 (9635)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.35

Record

43%

2287-2977 (5264)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.84

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.22

Record

28%

575-1484 (2059)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.