Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 99¢ · $849 held · ends Nov 10

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$849.28

Combined PnL

$19.83

Smart Money Entry

95.7¢ → 99¢

+3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$847.8

Total Shares853

Combined PnL+$22.14

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.48

Total Shares114

Combined PnL-$2.31

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KO korda77	Noavg 98.9¢	$300.74	$300.65	-$0.09	44% 6591-8244 (14835)
GO god83743894	Noavg 84¢	$119.06	$140.14	+$21.08	46% 10394-12106 (22500)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 98¢	$122.53	$123.63	+$1.1	47% 8497-9689 (18186)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 99¢	$50.23	$50.2	-$0.03	43% 3222-4252 (7474)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98¢	$49.2	$49.63	+$0.43	61% 15003-9455 (24458)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$49.19	$49.21	+$0.02	58% 12041-8590 (20631)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 93¢	$52.27	$49.2	-$3.07	18% 4425-20750 (25175)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$29.15	$29.67	+$0.52	61% 16040-10339 (26379)
balthazar	Noavg 98.9¢	$130	$20.85	-$0.04	53% 29736-26607 (56343)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97¢	$19.39	$19.78	+$0.39	53% 23096-20320 (43416)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92¢	$16.01	$14.83	+$1.82	58% 20250-14870 (35120)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$58	$0.75	-$1.18	27% 549-1474 (2023)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$30	$0.39	-$0.61	44% 2229-2873 (5102)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$25.75	$0.33	-$0.52	30% 2495-5935 (8430)

korda77

Invested

$300.74

Value

$300.65

PnL

-$0.09

Record

44%

6591-8244 (14835)

god83743894

Invested

$119.06

Value

$140.14

PnL

+$21.08

Record

46%

10394-12106 (22500)

mildwindow27

Invested

$122.53

Value

$123.63

PnL

+$1.1

Record

47%

8497-9689 (18186)

merod<$100

Invested

$50.23

Value

$50.2

PnL

-$0.03

Record

43%

3222-4252 (7474)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$49.2

Value

$49.63

PnL

+$0.43

Record

61%

15003-9455 (24458)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$49.19

Value

$49.21

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

12041-8590 (20631)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$52.27

Value

$49.2

PnL

-$3.07

Record

18%

4425-20750 (25175)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.15

Value

$29.67

PnL

+$0.52

Record

61%

16040-10339 (26379)

balthazar

Invested

$130

Value

$20.85

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

29736-26607 (56343)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.39

Value

$19.78

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

23096-20320 (43416)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.01

Value

$14.83

PnL

+$1.82

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$1.18

Record

27%

549-1474 (2023)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$0.61

Record

44%

2229-2873 (5102)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.75

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$0.52

Record

30%

2495-5935 (8430)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.