Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 99¢ · $207 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 33%
$207.37
$4.91
90.8¢ → 98.9¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
57h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9S | Noavg 91¢ | $178.34 | $177.89 | +$1.41 | 17% 4501-22036 (26537) |
 balthazar | Noavg 88¢ | $125.47 | $13.55 | +$13.42 | 52% 30969-28992 (59961) |
XZ xzsaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $12.28 | $11.58 | -$0.7 | 8% 4-44 (48) |
 ElonSpamCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $10.78 | $3.64 | -$6.62 | 40% 1555-2349 (3904) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $1.41 | $0.48 | -$0.87 | 42% 2356-3223 (5579) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $3.01 | $0.23 | -$1.73 | 40% 6547-9828 (16375) |
2B9SInvested
$178.34
Value
$177.89
PnL
+$1.41
Record
17%
4501-22036 (26537)
balthazarInvested
$125.47
Value
$13.55
PnL
+$13.42
Record
52%
30969-28992 (59961)
Invested
$12.28
Value
$11.58
PnL
-$0.7
Record
8%
4-44 (48)
ElonSpamCTR<$100Invested
$10.78
Value
$3.64
PnL
-$6.62
Record
40%
1555-2349 (3904)
Invested
$1.41
Value
$0.48
PnL
-$0.87
Record
42%
2356-3223 (5579)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$3.01
Value
$0.23
PnL
-$1.73
Record
40%
6547-9828 (16375)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.