Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
No
13
No 100%
$1.2K
$3.45
94.3¢ → 96.9¢
+3% since entry · 13 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
13 of 13 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-2 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $295.82 | $294.41 | -$1.41 | 44% 6563-8231 (14794) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 88.9¢ | $199.83 | $193.05 | -$4.78 | 14% 503-3033 (3536) |
 balthazar | Noavg 94.7¢ | $135.86 | $138.98 | +$3.12 | 53% 29676-26572 (56248) |
GO god83743894 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $132.49 | $136.03 | +$3.54 | 46% 10368-12079 (22447) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $95.95 | $97.03 | +$1.09 | 47% 8454-9632 (18086) |
 2B9S | Noavg 91.8¢ | $126.3 | $74.53 | -$1.77 | 18% 4414-20716 (25130) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $70.71 | $72 | +$1.29 | 49% 8939-9446 (18385) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $49.41 | $49.14 | -$0.27 | 43% 3211-4246 (7457) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $48.2 | $48.19 | -$0 | 59% 12012-8500 (20512) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $28 | $28.8 | +$0.8 | 50% 9885-9867 (19752) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $18.67 | $19.2 | +$0.53 | 53% 23002-20232 (43234) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.7¢ | $19.52 | $7.09 | +$1 | 58% 20160-14785 (34945) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $4.5 | $4.8 | +$0.3 | 77% 12464-3825 (16289) |
Invested
$295.82
Value
$294.41
PnL
-$1.41
Record
44%
6563-8231 (14794)
IstarothInvested
$199.83
Value
$193.05
PnL
-$4.78
Record
14%
503-3033 (3536)
balthazarInvested
$135.86
Value
$138.98
PnL
+$3.12
Record
53%
29676-26572 (56248)
Invested
$132.49
Value
$136.03
PnL
+$3.54
Record
46%
10368-12079 (22447)
Invested
$95.95
Value
$97.03
PnL
+$1.09
Record
47%
8454-9632 (18086)
2B9SInvested
$126.3
Value
$74.53
PnL
-$1.77
Record
18%
4414-20716 (25130)
Invested
$70.71
Value
$72
PnL
+$1.29
Record
49%
8939-9446 (18385)
Invested
$49.41
Value
$49.14
PnL
-$0.27
Record
43%
3211-4246 (7457)
Invested
$48.2
Value
$48.19
PnL
-$0
Record
59%
12012-8500 (20512)
Invested
$28
Value
$28.8
PnL
+$0.8
Record
50%
9885-9867 (19752)
Invested
$18.67
Value
$19.2
PnL
+$0.53
Record
53%
23002-20232 (43234)
Invested
$19.52
Value
$7.09
PnL
+$1
Record
58%
20160-14785 (34945)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$0.3
Record
77%
12464-3825 (16289)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.