Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 94¢ · $660 held · ends Nov 10

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$659.81

Combined PnL

$17.6

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 93.5¢

+4% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$658.78

Total Shares679

Combined PnL+$17.29

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.03

Total Shares14

Combined PnL+$0.31

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
2B9S	Noavg 89.7¢	$170.83	$181.7	+$10.87	18% 4304-20139 (24443)
Istaroth	Noavg 87¢	$149.75	$148.37	+$0.02	15% 498-2922 (3420)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$89.46	$90.94	+$1.48	17% 1254-6014 (7268)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$68.56	$69.38	+$0.82	51% 3701-3552 (7253)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 90.7¢	$38.79	$39.57	+$0.78	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$27.42	$27.75	+$0.33	49% 8853-9361 (18214)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$27.42	$27.75	+$0.33	47% 8377-9565 (17942)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$26.64	$25.68	+$2.52	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$18.48	$18.51	+$0.03	61% 15949-10240 (26189)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$18.47	$18.5	+$0.03	53% 22809-20010 (42819)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$6.09	$6.01	-$0.08	18% 351-1601 (1952)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.63	+$0.17	77% 12390-3803 (16193)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.4¢	$1.15	$1.03	+$0.31	35% 18318-34086 (52404)

2B9S

Invested

$170.83

Value

$181.7

PnL

+$10.87

Record

18%

4304-20139 (24443)

Istaroth

Invested

$149.75

Value

$148.37

PnL

+$0.02

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$89.46

Value

$90.94

PnL

+$1.48

Record

17%

1254-6014 (7268)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$68.56

Value

$69.38

PnL

+$0.82

Record

51%

3701-3552 (7253)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$38.79

Value

$39.57

PnL

+$0.78

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$27.42

Value

$27.75

PnL

+$0.33

Record

49%

8853-9361 (18214)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$27.42

Value

$27.75

PnL

+$0.33

Record

47%

8377-9565 (17942)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.64

Value

$25.68

PnL

+$2.52

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$18.48

Value

$18.51

PnL

+$0.03

Record

61%

15949-10240 (26189)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.47

Value

$18.5

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

22809-20010 (42819)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$6.09

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$0.08

Record

18%

351-1601 (1952)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$0.17

Record

77%

12390-3803 (16193)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.03

PnL

+$0.31

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.