Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 97¢ · $337 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
No
11
No 73%
$336.75
$92.06
86.3¢ → 97.1¢
+13% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-6 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Late
62h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9S | Noavg 90¢ | $227.28 | $184.99 | +$7.71 | 17% 4484-21727 (26211) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 90.6¢ | $89.46 | $38.7 | +$3.24 | 17% 1307-6166 (7473) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.8¢ | $30.99 | $27.33 | +$5.81 | 58% 21129-15368 (36497) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $22.42 | $22.27 | +$7.81 | 31% 3231-7101 (10332) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $18.47 | $19.38 | +$0.91 | 53% 23272-20444 (43716) |
 balthazar | Noavg 95¢ | $142.31 | $18.9 | -$0.1 | 52% 30722-28786 (59508) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 6.8¢ | $15.2 | $16.18 | +$71.41 | 45% 10561-12883 (23444) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $4.45 | $4.85 | +$0.39 | 77% 12627-3871 (16498) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $1.32 | $1.95 | +$1.65 | 29% 2495-6009 (8504) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $1.41 | $1.32 | -$0.09 | 43% 2287-2977 (5264) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.5¢ | $17.33 | $0.87 | -$6.69 | 28% 575-1484 (2059) |
2B9SInvested
$227.28
Value
$184.99
PnL
+$7.71
Record
17%
4484-21727 (26211)
Invested
$89.46
Value
$38.7
PnL
+$3.24
Record
17%
1307-6166 (7473)
Invested
$30.99
Value
$27.33
PnL
+$5.81
Record
58%
21129-15368 (36497)
Invested
$22.42
Value
$22.27
PnL
+$7.81
Record
31%
3231-7101 (10332)
Invested
$18.47
Value
$19.38
PnL
+$0.91
Record
53%
23272-20444 (43716)
balthazarInvested
$142.31
Value
$18.9
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
30722-28786 (59508)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$16.18
PnL
+$71.41
Record
45%
10561-12883 (23444)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0.39
Record
77%
12627-3871 (16498)
Invested
$1.32
Value
$1.95
PnL
+$1.65
Record
29%
2495-6009 (8504)
Invested
$1.41
Value
$1.32
PnL
-$0.09
Record
43%
2287-2977 (5264)
Invested
$17.33
Value
$0.87
PnL
-$6.69
Record
28%
575-1484 (2059)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.