Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 83¢ · $306 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 67%
$305.81
$58.79
82.7¢ → 83.4¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 83%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
56h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Noavg 85.1¢ | $352.48 | $167.3 | -$55.54 | 40% 6572-9858 (16430) |
 ElonSpamCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $10.78 | $48.18 | +$32.17 | 40% 1556-2355 (3911) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $99.88 | $35.08 | -$1.63 | 58% 21387-15516 (36903) |
SP SpringlyFawl | Noavg 85.9¢ | $261.87 | $26.9 | -$2.21 | 27% 2549-6956 (9505) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 30.3¢ | $77.1 | $14.3 | +$76.91 | 43% 10649-14114 (24763) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $1.24 | $5.57 | +$3.07 | 42% 2368-3249 (5617) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 89.3¢ | $4.47 | $4.28 | -$0.18 | 77% 12724-3887 (16611) |
WA WarriorHCTR | Yesavg 12.2¢ | $417.11 | $3.25 | +$6.21 | 17% 1362-6604 (7966) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $0.97 | $0.97 | -$0 | 38% 7184-11806 (18990) |
HaradwaithInvested
$352.48
Value
$167.3
PnL
-$55.54
Record
40%
6572-9858 (16430)
ElonSpamCTR<$100Invested
$10.78
Value
$48.18
PnL
+$32.17
Record
40%
1556-2355 (3911)
Invested
$99.88
Value
$35.08
PnL
-$1.63
Record
58%
21387-15516 (36903)
Invested
$261.87
Value
$26.9
PnL
-$2.21
Record
27%
2549-6956 (9505)
Invested
$77.1
Value
$14.3
PnL
+$76.91
Record
43%
10649-14114 (24763)
Invested
$1.24
Value
$5.57
PnL
+$3.07
Record
42%
2368-3249 (5617)
Invested
$4.47
Value
$4.28
PnL
-$0.18
Record
77%
12724-3887 (16611)
Invested
$417.11
Value
$3.25
PnL
+$6.21
Record
17%
1362-6604 (7966)
Invested
$0.97
Value
$0.97
PnL
-$0
Record
38%
7184-11806 (18990)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.