Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 83¢ · $301 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 71%
$300.55
$177.4
85.4¢ → 82.7¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 83%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+12 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
77h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Noavg 85.8¢ | $164.99 | $164.2 | +$45.78 | 40% 6572-9858 (16430) |
 ElonSpamCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $10.78 | $48.48 | +$38.53 | 40% 1556-2355 (3911) |
 2B9S | Noavg 86.8¢ | $307.26 | $41.38 | +$22.65 | 17% 4506-22075 (26581) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92.7¢ | $69.62 | $26.21 | -$4.39 | 58% 21387-15516 (36903) |
GO god83743894 | Noavg 61.8¢ | $157.41 | $13.99 | +$71.35 | 43% 10649-14114 (24763) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $1.07 | $4.8 | +$3.46 | 42% 2368-3249 (5617) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $1.46 | $1.49 | +$0.03 | 17% 1362-6604 (7966) |
HaradwaithInvested
$164.99
Value
$164.2
PnL
+$45.78
Record
40%
6572-9858 (16430)
ElonSpamCTR<$100Invested
$10.78
Value
$48.48
PnL
+$38.53
Record
40%
1556-2355 (3911)
2B9SInvested
$307.26
Value
$41.38
PnL
+$22.65
Record
17%
4506-22075 (26581)
Invested
$69.62
Value
$26.21
PnL
-$4.39
Record
58%
21387-15516 (36903)
Invested
$157.41
Value
$13.99
PnL
+$71.35
Record
43%
10649-14114 (24763)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$3.46
Record
42%
2368-3249 (5617)
Invested
$1.46
Value
$1.49
PnL
+$0.03
Record
17%
1362-6604 (7966)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.