Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 86¢ · $320 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 75%
$320.44
$81.26
85.2¢ → 86¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 86%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Mature
27h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9S | Noavg 88¢ | $487.12 | $160.25 | -$2.31 | 17% 4484-21727 (26211) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 90.9¢ | $100 | $87.8 | -$3.1 | 40% 6449-9526 (15975) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $21.57 | $20.03 | -$1.55 | 53% 23272-20444 (43716) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 87.9¢ | $43.43 | $18.4 | -$0.01 | 52% 30722-28786 (59508) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 7.1¢ | $16 | $14.35 | +$69.52 | 45% 10561-12883 (23444) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92.7¢ | $29 | $9.96 | +$3.36 | 58% 21129-15368 (36497) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $1.41 | $5.68 | +$4.27 | 43% 2287-2977 (5264) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $2.84 | $3.93 | +$11.08 | 28% 575-1484 (2059) |
2B9SInvested
$487.12
Value
$160.25
PnL
-$2.31
Record
17%
4484-21727 (26211)
HaradwaithInvested
$100
Value
$87.8
PnL
-$3.1
Record
40%
6449-9526 (15975)
Invested
$21.57
Value
$20.03
PnL
-$1.55
Record
53%
23272-20444 (43716)
balthazar<$100Invested
$43.43
Value
$18.4
PnL
-$0.01
Record
52%
30722-28786 (59508)
Invested
$16
Value
$14.35
PnL
+$69.52
Record
45%
10561-12883 (23444)
Invested
$29
Value
$9.96
PnL
+$3.36
Record
58%
21129-15368 (36497)
Invested
$1.41
Value
$5.68
PnL
+$4.27
Record
43%
2287-2977 (5264)
Invested
$2.84
Value
$3.93
PnL
+$11.08
Record
28%
575-1484 (2059)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.