Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 93¢ · $768 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
No
12
No 92%
$767.73
-$7.8
95.8¢ → 93.3¢
-3% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 93%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+1 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $287.62 | $285.45 | -$2.17 | 44% 6591-8244 (14835) |
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $262.43 | $136.33 | -$4.69 | 47% 8497-9689 (18186) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $96.71 | $93.72 | -$2.99 | 46% 10394-12106 (22500) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $48.2 | $47.66 | -$0.53 | 43% 3222-4252 (7474) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $47.2 | $46.72 | -$0.48 | 58% 12041-8590 (20631) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 96.4¢ | $272.02 | $34.88 | -$0.75 | 58% 20250-14870 (35120) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $29.43 | $28.17 | -$1.26 | 51% 3760-3612 (7372) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $29.35 | $28.17 | -$1.18 | 49% 8976-9501 (18477) |
 balthazar | Noavg 93.6¢ | $143.38 | $19.83 | +$0.11 | 53% 29736-26607 (56343) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $19.49 | $18.78 | -$0.71 | 53% 23096-20320 (43416) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $29.75 | $14.68 | -$0.47 | 44% 2229-2873 (5102) |
 2B9SCTR | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $226 | $13.33 | +$7.32 | 18% 4425-20750 (25175) |
Invested
$287.62
Value
$285.45
PnL
-$2.17
Record
44%
6591-8244 (14835)
Invested
$262.43
Value
$136.33
PnL
-$4.69
Record
47%
8497-9689 (18186)
Invested
$96.71
Value
$93.72
PnL
-$2.99
Record
46%
10394-12106 (22500)
Invested
$48.2
Value
$47.66
PnL
-$0.53
Record
43%
3222-4252 (7474)
Invested
$47.2
Value
$46.72
PnL
-$0.48
Record
58%
12041-8590 (20631)
Invested
$272.02
Value
$34.88
PnL
-$0.75
Record
58%
20250-14870 (35120)
Invested
$29.43
Value
$28.17
PnL
-$1.26
Record
51%
3760-3612 (7372)
Invested
$29.35
Value
$28.17
PnL
-$1.18
Record
49%
8976-9501 (18477)
balthazarInvested
$143.38
Value
$19.83
PnL
+$0.11
Record
53%
29736-26607 (56343)
Invested
$19.49
Value
$18.78
PnL
-$0.71
Record
53%
23096-20320 (43416)
Invested
$29.75
Value
$14.68
PnL
-$0.47
Record
44%
2229-2873 (5102)
2B9SCTRInvested
$226
Value
$13.33
PnL
+$7.32
Record
18%
4425-20750 (25175)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.