Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $151 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 75%
$151.02
-$70.31
3.4¢ → 0.4¢
-87% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
27h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock | Noavg 96.9¢ | $106.62 | $64.69 | +$2.85 | 57% 17528-13093 (30621) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $59.34 | $59.76 | +$0.42 | 49% 7767-8208 (15975) |
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $64.72 | $22.5 | -$42.22 | 38% 605-1001 (1606) |
BI bipbipbopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $4 | $2.4 | -$1.6 | 64% 2426-1347 (3773) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $9.82 | $0.68 | -$9.14 | 24% 291-898 (1189) |
WA WarriorHCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $141.92 | $0.57 | -$12.03 | 17% 1056-5089 (6145) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $47.28 | $0.21 | -$4.52 | 30% 2226-5182 (7408) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $4.28 | $0.21 | -$4.07 | 25% 1615-4803 (6418) |
Invested
$106.62
Value
$64.69
PnL
+$2.85
Record
57%
17528-13093 (30621)
Invested
$59.34
Value
$59.76
PnL
+$0.42
Record
49%
7767-8208 (15975)
Invested
$64.72
Value
$22.5
PnL
-$42.22
Record
38%
605-1001 (1606)
Invested
$4
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$1.6
Record
64%
2426-1347 (3773)
Invested
$9.82
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$9.14
Record
24%
291-898 (1189)
Invested
$141.92
Value
$0.57
PnL
-$12.03
Record
17%
1056-5089 (6145)
Invested
$47.28
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$4.52
Record
30%
2226-5182 (7408)
Invested
$4.28
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$4.07
Record
25%
1615-4803 (6418)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.