Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from November 14 to November 16, 2026?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $383 held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 67%
$383.17
-$13.73
99.8¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $143.47 | $143.47 | +$0 | 27% 1031-2734 (3765) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.7¢ | $119.66 | $119.64 | -$0.02 | 53% 7113-6221 (13334) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $39.96 | $39.88 | -$0.08 | 36% 263-468 (731) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $39.96 | $39.88 | -$0.08 | 34% 238-461 (699) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.91 | +$0 | 35% 290-535 (825) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $9.97 | $9.97 | +$0 | 29% 1113-2674 (3787) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $9 | $0.27 | -$8.73 | 43% 5103-6732 (11835) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $4.77 | $0.14 | -$4.62 | 42% 2632-3664 (6296) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $0.2 | $0.01 | -$0.19 | 13% 22-150 (172) |
Invested
$143.47
Value
$143.47
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
1031-2734 (3765)
Invested
$119.66
Value
$119.64
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
7113-6221 (13334)
Invested
$39.96
Value
$39.88
PnL
-$0.08
Record
36%
263-468 (731)
Invested
$39.96
Value
$39.88
PnL
-$0.08
Record
34%
238-461 (699)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.91
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
290-535 (825)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$9.97
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
1113-2674 (3787)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$8.73
Record
43%
5103-6732 (11835)
Invested
$4.77
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$4.62
Record
42%
2632-3664 (6296)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.19
Record
13%
22-150 (172)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.