Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from November 13 to November 20, 2026?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $54 held · ends Nov 20
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$53.52
-$15.62
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.99 | +$0.02 | 30% 1026-2400 (3426) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $18.24 | $18.25 | +$0.01 | 53% 6888-6032 (12920) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $4.99 | $5 | +$0.01 | 74% 42-15 (57) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $9.87 | $0.11 | -$9.44 | 17% 8-40 (48) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $2.87 | $0.09 | -$2.78 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $22.6 | $0.08 | -$3.19 | 44% 5036-6461 (11497) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $0.25 | $0.01 | -$0.24 | 26% 548-1574 (2122) |
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
30%
1026-2400 (3426)
Invested
$18.24
Value
$18.25
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
6888-6032 (12920)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.01
Record
74%
42-15 (57)
Invested
$9.87
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$9.44
Record
17%
8-40 (48)
Invested
$2.87
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$2.78
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$22.6
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$3.19
Record
44%
5036-6461 (11497)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.24
Record
26%
548-1574 (2122)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.