Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 13 to November 20, 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 3.8¢ · $117 held · ends Nov 20

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$117.28

Combined PnL

-$17.21

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$90.07

Total Shares93

Combined PnL-$1.04

Yes5 traders

Total Value$27.21

Total Shares786

Combined PnL-$16.17

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$37.38	$36.96	-$0.42	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$29.34	$28.98	-$0.36	34% 269-524 (793)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$19.56	$19.32	-$0.24	29% 62-155 (217)
XZ xzsaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$14.07	$18.4	+$4.33	3% 1-33 (34)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$4.83	$4.81	-$0.02	74% 42-15 (57)
BI bipbipbopCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$3.87	$3.99	+$0.12	78% 35-10 (45)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$11.5	$1.67	-$0.38	16% 8-41 (49)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$71.02	$1.64	-$20.87	18% 853-3919 (4772)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$15.62	$1.52	+$0.64	52% 1696-1538 (3234)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$37.38

Value

$36.96

PnL

-$0.42

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.34

Value

$28.98

PnL

-$0.36

Record

34%

269-524 (793)

123987456<$100

Invested

$19.56

Value

$19.32

PnL

-$0.24

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

xzsaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.07

Value

$18.4

PnL

+$4.33

Record

1-33 (34)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$0.02

Record

74%

42-15 (57)

bipbipbopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.87

Value

$3.99

PnL

+$0.12

Record

78%

35-10 (45)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.5

Value

$1.67

PnL

-$0.38

Record

16%

8-41 (49)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.02

Value

$1.64

PnL

-$20.87

Record

18%

853-3919 (4772)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.62

Value

$1.52

PnL

+$0.64

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.0%

3.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1909.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

2009.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.