Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 83¢ · $50 held · ends Nov 14

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$50.33

Combined PnL

-$2.4

Research grade

AvoidNo at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$31.53

Total Shares38

Combined PnL+$3.78

Yes3 traders

Total Value$18.8

Total Shares94

Combined PnL-$6.18

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 76¢	$14.44	$15.67	+$1.23	53% 5667-5090 (10757)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$18.86	$10.4	-$2.16	10% 3-26 (29)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 63¢	$6.3	$8.25	+$1.95	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 76¢	$7.01	$7.61	+$0.6	40% 1456-2158 (3614)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$9.72	$5.4	-$4.32	3% 1-31 (32)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$2.7	$3	+$0.3	54% 562-474 (1036)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14.44

Value

$15.67

PnL

+$1.23

Record

53%

5667-5090 (10757)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.86

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$2.16

Record

10%

3-26 (29)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$1.95

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$7.01

Value

$7.61

PnL

+$0.6

Record

40%

1456-2158 (3614)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.72

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$4.32

Record

1-31 (32)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

562-474 (1036)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.