Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $215 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$215.43
-$2.07
77.3¢ → 76¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 76%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F | Noavg 76.5¢ | $226.46 | $168.1 | -$0.04 | 4% 1-27 (28) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 77.3¢ | $17.92 | $17.9 | -$0.03 | 54% 565-474 (1039) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $15.58 | $14.63 | -$0.95 | 53% 5671-5100 (10771) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $8.3 | $7.7 | -$0.6 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $7.56 | $7.1 | -$0.46 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
Invested
$226.46
Value
$168.1
PnL
-$0.04
Record
4%
1-27 (28)
Invested
$17.92
Value
$17.9
PnL
-$0.03
Record
54%
565-474 (1039)
Invested
$15.58
Value
$14.63
PnL
-$0.95
Record
53%
5671-5100 (10771)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$8.3
Value
$7.7
PnL
-$0.6
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$7.56
Value
$7.1
PnL
-$0.46
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.