Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $627 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$626.65
$0.47
99.7¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Mature
46h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.7¢ | $209.74 | $209.8 | +$0.07 | 52% 5344-4847 (10191) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.7¢ | $133.61 | $133.73 | +$0.12 | 35% 2930-5331 (8261) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $109.66 | $109.77 | +$0.11 | 50% 4511-4443 (8954) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $81.62 | $81.84 | +$0.22 | 14% 43-271 (314) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $49.9 | $49.88 | -$0.02 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $41.65 | $41.63 | -$0.02 | 44% 1072-1377 (2449) |
Invested
$209.74
Value
$209.8
PnL
+$0.07
Record
52%
5344-4847 (10191)
LucerysInvested
$133.61
Value
$133.73
PnL
+$0.12
Record
35%
2930-5331 (8261)
balthazarInvested
$109.66
Value
$109.77
PnL
+$0.11
Record
50%
4511-4443 (8954)
Invested
$81.62
Value
$81.84
PnL
+$0.22
Record
14%
43-271 (314)
Invested
$49.9
Value
$49.88
PnL
-$0.02
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$41.65
Value
$41.63
PnL
-$0.02
Record
44%
1072-1377 (2449)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.