Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $639 held · ends Nov 17

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$639.25

Combined PnL

$0.95

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$639.16

Total Shares639

Combined PnL+$1.22

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.09

Total Shares177

Combined PnL-$0.26

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.8¢	$250.53	$250.81	+$0.29	53% 5657-5082 (10739)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.8¢	$145.35	$145.63	+$0.28	37% 3197-5378 (8575)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$68.89	$69.08	+$0.19	51% 4649-4526 (9175)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$59.76	$59.97	+$0.21	27% 104-283 (387)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$49.9	$49.98	+$0.08	28% 522-1370 (1892)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$41.65	$41.71	+$0.06	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$21.87	$21.99	+$0.12	40% 1455-2158 (3613)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.35	$0.09	-$0.26	12% 21-154 (175)

cigarettes

Invested

$250.53

Value

$250.81

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

5657-5082 (10739)

Lucerys

Invested

$145.35

Value

$145.63

PnL

+$0.28

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$68.89

Value

$69.08

PnL

+$0.19

Record

51%

4649-4526 (9175)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$59.76

Value

$59.97

PnL

+$0.21

Record

27%

104-283 (387)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$49.9

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$0.08

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$41.65

Value

$41.71

PnL

+$0.06

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$21.87

Value

$21.99

PnL

+$0.12

Record

40%

1455-2158 (3613)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.26

Record

12%

21-154 (175)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.