Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $918 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$918.43
$1.41
99.7¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Late
54h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.7¢ | $440.12 | $440.61 | +$0.49 | 53% 5667-5090 (10757) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $158.59 | $158.87 | +$0.28 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.7¢ | $145.22 | $145.48 | +$0.26 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $81.55 | $81.88 | +$0.33 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $49.9 | $49.93 | +$0.03 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $41.65 | $41.67 | +$0.02 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
Invested
$440.12
Value
$440.61
PnL
+$0.49
Record
53%
5667-5090 (10757)
balthazarInvested
$158.59
Value
$158.87
PnL
+$0.28
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
LucerysInvested
$145.22
Value
$145.48
PnL
+$0.26
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$81.55
Value
$81.88
PnL
+$0.33
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$49.9
Value
$49.93
PnL
+$0.03
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$41.65
Value
$41.67
PnL
+$0.02
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.