Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$1.0K
$1.89
99.6¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.6¢ | $559.28 | $559.87 | +$0.59 | 53% 5667-5090 (10757) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.5¢ | $163.6 | $163.99 | +$0.39 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.4¢ | $144.87 | $145.34 | +$0.46 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $81.49 | $81.8 | +$0.31 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $49.8 | $49.88 | +$0.08 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $41.56 | $41.63 | +$0.06 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
Invested
$559.28
Value
$559.87
PnL
+$0.59
Record
53%
5667-5090 (10757)
balthazarInvested
$163.6
Value
$163.99
PnL
+$0.39
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
LucerysInvested
$144.87
Value
$145.34
PnL
+$0.46
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$81.49
Value
$81.8
PnL
+$0.31
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$49.8
Value
$49.88
PnL
+$0.08
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$41.56
Value
$41.63
PnL
+$0.06
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.