Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 100%
$1.2K
$2.4
99.4¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Mature
31h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.5¢ | $677.91 | $678.89 | +$0.97 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.4¢ | $163.4 | $163.82 | +$0.42 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.4¢ | $144.75 | $145.19 | +$0.44 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $49.73 | $49.83 | +$0.1 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $41.52 | $41.58 | +$0.06 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.82 | $29.9 | +$0.08 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.9 | +$0.2 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $21.78 | $21.92 | +$0.14 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
Invested
$677.91
Value
$678.89
PnL
+$0.97
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
balthazarInvested
$163.4
Value
$163.82
PnL
+$0.42
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
LucerysInvested
$144.75
Value
$145.19
PnL
+$0.44
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$49.73
Value
$49.83
PnL
+$0.1
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$41.52
Value
$41.58
PnL
+$0.06
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$29.9
PnL
+$0.08
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.9
PnL
+$0.2
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$21.78
Value
$21.92
PnL
+$0.14
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.