Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 100%
$1.2K
$12.84
98.3¢ → 99.4¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
51h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 98.3¢ | $669.67 | $676.84 | +$7.17 | 53% 5667-5090 (10757) |
 balthazar | Noavg 98.2¢ | $161.38 | $163.33 | +$1.95 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 98.1¢ | $143 | $144.75 | +$1.76 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $58.92 | $59.61 | +$0.69 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $49.15 | $49.68 | +$0.53 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $41.02 | $41.46 | +$0.44 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $21.55 | $21.86 | +$0.31 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
Invested
$669.67
Value
$676.84
PnL
+$7.17
Record
53%
5667-5090 (10757)
balthazarInvested
$161.38
Value
$163.33
PnL
+$1.95
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
LucerysInvested
$143
Value
$144.75
PnL
+$1.76
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$58.92
Value
$59.61
PnL
+$0.69
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$49.15
Value
$49.68
PnL
+$0.53
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$41.02
Value
$41.46
PnL
+$0.44
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$21.55
Value
$21.86
PnL
+$0.31
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.