Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 100%
$1.1K
$15.63
97.4¢ → 98.8¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Late
53h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 97.4¢ | $663.54 | $672.41 | +$8.88 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 97.3¢ | $141.75 | $143.81 | +$2.05 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
 balthazar | Noavg 97.3¢ | $140.51 | $142.5 | +$1.99 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $79.68 | $80.93 | +$1.25 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $48.7 | $49.35 | +$0.65 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $40.65 | $41.19 | +$0.54 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $14.54 | $14.81 | +$0.27 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
Invested
$663.54
Value
$672.41
PnL
+$8.88
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
LucerysInvested
$141.75
Value
$143.81
PnL
+$2.05
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
balthazarInvested
$140.51
Value
$142.5
PnL
+$1.99
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$79.68
Value
$80.93
PnL
+$1.25
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$48.7
Value
$49.35
PnL
+$0.65
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$40.65
Value
$41.19
PnL
+$0.54
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$14.54
Value
$14.81
PnL
+$0.27
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.