Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 88%
$1.2K
$41.92
94.1¢ → 97.4¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
54h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 94.4¢ | $643.2 | $664.92 | +$21.72 | 53% 5667-5090 (10757) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 93.7¢ | $207.73 | $216.48 | +$8.75 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
 balthazar | Noavg 93.6¢ | $153.91 | $160.43 | +$6.52 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $76.78 | $80.03 | +$3.25 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $47 | $48.8 | +$1.8 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $39.23 | $40.73 | +$1.5 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $6.3 | $6.61 | +$0.31 | 82% 23-5 (28) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $3 | $1.08 | -$1.93 | 12% 21-155 (176) |
Invested
$643.2
Value
$664.92
PnL
+$21.72
Record
53%
5667-5090 (10757)
LucerysInvested
$207.73
Value
$216.48
PnL
+$8.75
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
balthazarInvested
$153.91
Value
$160.43
PnL
+$6.52
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$76.78
Value
$80.03
PnL
+$3.25
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$47
Value
$48.8
PnL
+$1.8
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$39.23
Value
$40.73
PnL
+$1.5
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$6.61
PnL
+$0.31
Record
82%
23-5 (28)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3
Value
$1.08
PnL
-$1.93
Record
12%
21-155 (176)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.