Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 100%
$1.5K
$52.82
86.6¢ → 91.5¢
+6% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Late
97h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 87¢ | $592.9 | $613.14 | +$20.24 | 53% 5667-5090 (10757) |
WA WarriorH | Noavg 86.2¢ | $315.61 | $327.54 | +$11.93 | 3% 1-31 (32) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 85.6¢ | $215.56 | $226.54 | +$10.98 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
 balthazar | Noavg 87.4¢ | $99.95 | $102.97 | +$3.02 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 86.4¢ | $70.82 | $73.8 | +$2.98 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $43 | $45 | +$2 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $35.89 | $37.56 | +$1.67 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $28.43 | $28.43 | +$0 | 12% 21-155 (176) |
Invested
$592.9
Value
$613.14
PnL
+$20.24
Record
53%
5667-5090 (10757)
Invested
$315.61
Value
$327.54
PnL
+$11.93
Record
3%
1-31 (32)
LucerysInvested
$215.56
Value
$226.54
PnL
+$10.98
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
balthazarInvested
$99.95
Value
$102.97
PnL
+$3.02
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$70.82
Value
$73.8
PnL
+$2.98
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$43
Value
$45
PnL
+$2
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$35.89
Value
$37.56
PnL
+$1.67
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$28.43
Value
$28.43
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
21-155 (176)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.