Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 88¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 100%
$1.3K
-$59.54
91.4¢ → 87.5¢
-4% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 88%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Mature
42h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 91.5¢ | $623.66 | $596.11 | -$27.55 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
WA WarriorH | Noavg 91.3¢ | $195.38 | $187.25 | -$8.13 | 3% 1-31 (32) |
 balthazar | Noavg 92¢ | $151.25 | $143.85 | -$7.4 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
 LornaPredicts | Noavg 89.3¢ | $134 | $131.25 | -$2.75 | 12% 21-155 (176) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 92.2¢ | $134.3 | $127.49 | -$6.81 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $47.84 | $45.5 | -$2.34 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $45.5 | $43.75 | -$1.75 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $37.98 | $36.52 | -$1.46 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $27.6 | $26.25 | -$1.35 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
Invested
$623.66
Value
$596.11
PnL
-$27.55
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
Invested
$195.38
Value
$187.25
PnL
-$8.13
Record
3%
1-31 (32)
balthazarInvested
$151.25
Value
$143.85
PnL
-$7.4
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
LornaPredictsInvested
$134
Value
$131.25
PnL
-$2.75
Record
12%
21-155 (176)
LucerysInvested
$134.3
Value
$127.49
PnL
-$6.81
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$47.84
Value
$45.5
PnL
-$2.34
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$45.5
Value
$43.75
PnL
-$1.75
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$37.98
Value
$36.52
PnL
-$1.46
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$27.6
Value
$26.25
PnL
-$1.35
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.