Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $982 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$981.73
-$45.91
93.7¢ → 89.5¢
-4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Late
53h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 93.1¢ | $631.68 | $607.29 | -$24.39 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
 balthazar | Noavg 94.2¢ | $149.68 | $142.24 | -$7.44 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 94.7¢ | $138.01 | $130.4 | -$7.61 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $47.5 | $44.75 | -$2.75 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $39.64 | $37.35 | -$2.3 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $21.12 | $19.69 | -$1.43 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
Invested
$631.68
Value
$607.29
PnL
-$24.39
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
balthazarInvested
$149.68
Value
$142.24
PnL
-$7.44
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
LucerysInvested
$138.01
Value
$130.4
PnL
-$7.61
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$47.5
Value
$44.75
PnL
-$2.75
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$39.64
Value
$37.35
PnL
-$2.3
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$21.12
Value
$19.69
PnL
-$1.43
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.