Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 100%
$1.1K
-$51.2
95.7¢ → 91¢
-5% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 91%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Mature
30h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 95.1¢ | $647.79 | $622 | -$25.79 | 53% 5656-5081 (10737) |
 balthazar | Noavg 96.3¢ | $158.33 | $150.08 | -$8.25 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 96.7¢ | $140.91 | $133.02 | -$7.88 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $48.3 | $45.65 | -$2.65 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $40.31 | $38.1 | -$2.21 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $29.1 | $27.39 | -$1.71 | 40% 1455-2158 (3613) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $28.8 | $27.39 | -$1.41 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $26.61 | $25.32 | -$1.29 | 54% 553-469 (1022) |
Invested
$647.79
Value
$622
PnL
-$25.79
Record
53%
5656-5081 (10737)
balthazarInvested
$158.33
Value
$150.08
PnL
-$8.25
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
LucerysInvested
$140.91
Value
$133.02
PnL
-$7.88
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$48.3
Value
$45.65
PnL
-$2.65
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$40.31
Value
$38.1
PnL
-$2.21
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$29.1
Value
$27.39
PnL
-$1.71
Record
40%
1455-2158 (3613)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$27.39
PnL
-$1.41
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$26.61
Value
$25.32
PnL
-$1.29
Record
54%
553-469 (1022)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.