Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
10
No 90%
$1.4K
-$66.43
97.1¢ → 92.5¢
-5% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Late
50h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 96.9¢ | $660.33 | $630.17 | -$30.16 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 96.5¢ | $307.32 | $286.08 | -$12.32 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
 balthazar | Noavg 97.7¢ | $143.45 | $135.86 | -$7.59 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 97.5¢ | $142.04 | $134.77 | -$7.27 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $48.8 | $46.25 | -$2.55 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $40.73 | $38.6 | -$2.13 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $29.34 | $27.75 | -$1.59 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $29.39 | $27.75 | -$1.64 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $21.54 | $20.35 | -$1.19 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $3.1 | $3.1 | +$0 | 12% 21-154 (175) |
Invested
$660.33
Value
$630.17
PnL
-$30.16
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$307.32
Value
$286.08
PnL
-$12.32
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
balthazarInvested
$143.45
Value
$135.86
PnL
-$7.59
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
LucerysInvested
$142.04
Value
$134.77
PnL
-$7.27
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$48.8
Value
$46.25
PnL
-$2.55
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$40.73
Value
$38.6
PnL
-$2.13
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$29.34
Value
$27.75
PnL
-$1.59
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$29.39
Value
$27.75
PnL
-$1.64
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$21.54
Value
$20.35
PnL
-$1.19
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.1
Value
$3.1
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
21-154 (175)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.