Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 88%
$1.2K
-$15.34
99¢ → 97.6¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Mature
31h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99¢ | $674.51 | $664.92 | -$9.59 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.1¢ | $162.86 | $160.43 | -$2.43 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.2¢ | $144.55 | $142.2 | -$2.35 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $87.22 | $86.69 | -$0.53 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $81.43 | $80.03 | -$1.39 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $49.7 | $48.8 | -$0.9 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $41.48 | $40.73 | -$0.75 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.63 | $3.24 | +$2.61 | 12% 21-154 (175) |
Invested
$674.51
Value
$664.92
PnL
-$9.59
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
balthazarInvested
$162.86
Value
$160.43
PnL
-$2.43
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
LucerysInvested
$144.55
Value
$142.2
PnL
-$2.35
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$87.22
Value
$86.69
PnL
-$0.53
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$81.43
Value
$80.03
PnL
-$1.39
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$49.7
Value
$48.8
PnL
-$0.9
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$41.48
Value
$40.73
PnL
-$0.75
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.63
Value
$3.24
PnL
+$2.61
Record
12%
21-154 (175)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.