Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 2 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-11-07?

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 48¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 7

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 17%

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

-$228.66

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 47.5¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 12 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares10,707

Combined PnL-$250.02

No10 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares7,347

Combined PnL+$21.36

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR	Yesavg 48.9¢	$5.1K	$4.9K	-$247.48	54% 89-75 (164)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 52¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$24.78	50% 2772-2747 (5519)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 53.6¢	$717.66	$659.49	-$12.16	58% 47475-34259 (81734)
NM NM-P	Noavg 52¢	$227.15	$229.34	+$2.18	64% 10178-5715 (15893)
GC GC-P	Noavg 52¢	$221	$227.38	+$6.38	64% 10176-5763 (15939)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 46.2¢	$94.79	$92.25	-$2.54	49% 1777-1875 (3652)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 55¢	$95.64	$92.16	+$0.87	49% 14973-15876 (30849)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 54.1¢	$18.95	$18.38	-$0.57	54% 10438-8758 (19196)
0xheavy888<$100	Noavg 52¢	$15.6	$15.75	+$0.15	56% 8215-6521 (14736)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 54¢	$9.72	$9.54	-$0.18	50% 28899-28703 (57602)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 56¢	$6.12	$5.79	-$0.05	53% 16963-15085 (32048)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.65	-$0.03	50% 26383-26006 (52389)

0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,130.98

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$247.48

Record

54%

89-75 (164)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$2,577.27

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$24.78

Record

50%

2772-2747 (5519)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$717.66

Value

$659.49

PnL

-$12.16

Record

58%

47475-34259 (81734)

NM-P

Invested

$227.15

Value

$229.34

PnL

+$2.18

Record

64%

10178-5715 (15893)

GC-P

Invested

$221

Value

$227.38

PnL

+$6.38

Record

64%

10176-5763 (15939)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.79

Value

$92.25

PnL

-$2.54

Record

49%

1777-1875 (3652)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$95.64

Value

$92.16

PnL

+$0.87

Record

49%

14973-15876 (30849)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$18.95

Value

$18.38

PnL

-$0.57

Record

54%

10438-8758 (19196)

0xheavy888<$100

Invested

$15.6

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$0.15

Record

56%

8215-6521 (14736)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$9.72

Value

$9.54

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

28899-28703 (57602)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$6.12

Value

$5.79

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

16963-15085 (32048)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

26383-26006 (52389)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 12 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.