Wrexham AFC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 54¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 17%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$6.33

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 53.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,849

Combined PnL+$26.83

Over10 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,237

Combined PnL-$20.5

Under — 17%Over — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 52.6¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$25.99	42% 8163-11357 (19520)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 47¢	$235	$232.5	-$2.5	64% 10176-5763 (15939)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 47¢	$235	$232.5	-$2.5	64% 10178-5715 (15893)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 48¢	$192	$186	-$2	56% 8215-6521 (14736)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48.5¢	$291	$139.51	-$4.5	58% 47475-34259 (81734)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 50.2¢	$137.22	$131.08	-$6.14	50% 1834-1824 (3658)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 51¢	$43.06	$43.9	+$0.84	50% 26383-26006 (52389)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 50.2¢	$45.7	$43.65	-$2.05	48% 1756-1884 (3640)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$34.14	$33.44	-$0.35	49% 14973-15876 (30849)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$32.17	$32.7	-$0.36	48% 62379-67237 (129616)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$36.06	$17.85	+$0.18	49% 1821-1900 (3721)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 47.6¢	$12.37	$12.09	-$0.28	54% 10438-8758 (19196)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$1,453.16

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$25.99

Record

42%

8163-11357 (19520)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$235

Value

$232.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

64%

10176-5763 (15939)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$235

Value

$232.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

64%

10178-5715 (15893)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$192

Value

$186

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

8215-6521 (14736)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$291

Value

$139.51

PnL

-$4.5

Record

58%

47475-34259 (81734)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$137.22

Value

$131.08

PnL

-$6.14

Record

50%

1834-1824 (3658)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$43.06

Value

$43.9

PnL

+$0.84

Record

50%

26383-26006 (52389)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.7

Value

$43.65

PnL

-$2.05

Record

48%

1756-1884 (3640)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.14

Value

$33.44

PnL

-$0.35

Record

49%

14973-15876 (30849)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.17

Value

$32.7

PnL

-$0.36

Record

48%

62379-67237 (129616)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.06

Value

$17.85

PnL

+$0.18

Record

49%

1821-1900 (3721)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.37

Value

$12.09

PnL

-$0.28

Record

54%

10438-8758 (19196)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.