Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (93%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-10-31?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 7.0¢ · $707 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 78%
$707.47
-$918.01
31.5¢ → 7¢
-78% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 93%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 81.8¢ | $358.59 | $407.45 | +$48.85 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
LZ lzh1CTR | Noavg 39¢ | $1.2K | $210 | -$959.99 | 43% 465-620 (1085) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $40.28 | $35.25 | -$5.03 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $28.48 | $24.92 | -$3.56 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $9.62 | $12.58 | +$2.96 | 53% 15956-14132 (30088) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $9.2 | $9.3 | +$0.1 | 54% 6286-5324 (11610) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $4.16 | $3.64 | -$0.52 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $3.36 | $2.94 | -$0.42 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $1.8 | $1.4 | -$0.4 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
Invested
$358.59
Value
$407.45
PnL
+$48.85
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
Invested
$1,169.99
Value
$210
PnL
-$959.99
Record
43%
465-620 (1085)
Invested
$40.28
Value
$35.25
PnL
-$5.03
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$28.48
Value
$24.92
PnL
-$3.56
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$9.62
Value
$12.58
PnL
+$2.96
Record
53%
15956-14132 (30088)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$9.3
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
6286-5324 (11610)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.16
Value
$3.64
PnL
-$0.52
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
Invested
$3.36
Value
$2.94
PnL
-$0.42
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$1.4
PnL
-$0.4
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.