Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
West Ham United FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC: O/U 2.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 71%
$3.1K
-$969.96
44.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 57.8¢ | $1.7K | $2.6K | +$909.07 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
CA Cannae | Overavg 55.1¢ | $257.44 | $261.78 | +$11.35 | 53% 15956-14132 (30088) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Underavg 43.6¢ | $457.13 | $145.28 | +$33.27 | 55% 7125-5714 (12839) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 46.5¢ | $1.3K | $17.04 | $-1.3K | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $3.58 | $2 | -$1.58 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
 us391CTR | Underavg 42¢ | $519.95 | $0.62 | -$519.33 | 51% 1683-1647 (3330) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 42¢ | $416.99 | $0.11 | -$78.47 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
Invested
$1,738.35
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$909.07
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$257.44
Value
$261.78
PnL
+$11.35
Record
53%
15956-14132 (30088)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$457.13
Value
$145.28
PnL
+$33.27
Record
55%
7125-5714 (12839)
Invested
$1,341.32
Value
$17.04
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.58
Value
$2
PnL
-$1.58
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
us391CTRInvested
$519.95
Value
$0.62
PnL
-$519.33
Record
51%
1683-1647 (3330)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$416.99
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$78.47
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.