Will West Ham United FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC end in a draw?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 82¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$3.2K
-$40.56
71.9¢ → 81.5¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 71.9¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$2.41 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
 RN1 | Noavg 72¢ | $584.02 | $661.08 | +$77.06 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 28.1¢ | $333.44 | $219.38 | -$114.06 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $13.93 | $10.3 | -$3.62 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $7.5 | $8.15 | +$0.65 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.3¢ | $10 | $6.53 | -$3.47 | 67% 23336-11741 (35077) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $3.6 | $4.07 | +$0.47 | 54% 6286-5324 (11610) |
Invested
$2,285.77
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$2.41
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
RN1Invested
$584.02
Value
$661.08
PnL
+$77.06
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$333.44
Value
$219.38
PnL
-$114.06
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$13.93
Value
$10.3
PnL
-$3.62
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$7.5
Value
$8.15
PnL
+$0.65
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
Invested
$10
Value
$6.53
PnL
-$3.47
Record
67%
23336-11741 (35077)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$4.07
PnL
+$0.47
Record
54%
6286-5324 (11610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.