Swansea City AFC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 51¢ · $311 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$310.78
-$3.21
51¢ → 50.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 51¢ | $153 | $150 | -$1.5 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 51¢ | $200 | $101 | -$1 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $41.31 | $40.5 | -$0.81 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $10.26 | $10.36 | +$0.1 | 54% 4884-4115 (8999) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $8.92 | $8.92 | +$0 | 53% 15955-14130 (30085) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$153
Value
$150
PnL
-$1.5
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
0xheavy888Invested
$200
Value
$101
PnL
-$1
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$41.31
Value
$40.5
PnL
-$0.81
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
Invested
$10.26
Value
$10.36
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
4884-4115 (8999)
Invested
$8.92
Value
$8.92
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15955-14130 (30085)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.