Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (77%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-10-31?
6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 23¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
12
No 50%
$4.9K
-$723.8
35.9¢ → 23¢
-36% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 77%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 44.5¢ | $3.2K | $1.8K | $-1.4K | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Yesavg 55¢ | $990 | $1.4K | +$396 | 54% 4886-4115 (9001) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 55¢ | $443.02 | $788 | +$348.14 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 98.5¢ | $436.48 | $437.86 | +$1.39 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
 0xheavy888 | Yesavg 55¢ | $400 | $314 | +$94 | 55% 7125-5714 (12839) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 23¢ | $303.6 | $178.2 | -$125.4 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.5¢ | $7.63 | $6.43 | -$1.2 | 51% 6009-5701 (11710) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $11.26 | $5.88 | -$5.37 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $4.2 | $4.33 | +$0.13 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $3.85 | -$0.05 | 54% 6286-5324 (11610) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $1.8 | $1.35 | -$0.45 | 58% 18665-13716 (32381) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.5¢ | $3 | $0.08 | -$2.91 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
Invested
$3,220.38
Value
$1.8K
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$990
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$396
Record
54%
4886-4115 (9001)
VeryLucky888Invested
$443.02
Value
$788
PnL
+$348.14
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
Invested
$436.48
Value
$437.86
PnL
+$1.39
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
0xheavy888Invested
$400
Value
$314
PnL
+$94
Record
55%
7125-5714 (12839)
RN1CTRInvested
$303.6
Value
$178.2
PnL
-$125.4
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$7.63
Value
$6.43
PnL
-$1.2
Record
51%
6009-5701 (11710)
Invested
$11.26
Value
$5.88
PnL
-$5.37
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$4.33
PnL
+$0.13
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.85
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
6286-5324 (11610)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$1.35
PnL
-$0.45
Record
58%
18665-13716 (32381)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$2.91
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.