Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Blackburn Rovers FC, while the market favors Swansea City AFC (92%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Swansea City AFC (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Blackburn Rovers FC (60%) · Blackburn Rovers FC at 8.2¢ · $756 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Blackburn Rovers FC
5
Blackburn Rovers FC 60%
$755.77
-$743.92
50.9¢ → 8.2¢
-84% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidBlackburn Rovers FC at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Swansea City AFC 92%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SA Saber-greed | Swansea City AFCavg 51¢ | $287.05 | $516.97 | +$229.92 | 59% 2556-1783 (4339) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Blackburn Rovers FCavg 51¢ | $845.8 | $135.16 | -$710.64 | 49% 19169-19561 (38730) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Blackburn Rovers FCavg 49.9¢ | $330.79 | $54.02 | -$276.77 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Swansea City AFCavg 44¢ | $17.38 | $36.28 | +$18.9 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Blackburn Rovers FCavg 70¢ | $26.67 | $13.33 | -$5.33 | 55% 7125-5714 (12839) |
Invested
$287.05
Value
$516.97
PnL
+$229.92
Record
59%
2556-1783 (4339)
Invested
$845.8
Value
$135.16
PnL
-$710.64
Record
49%
19169-19561 (38730)
Invested
$330.79
Value
$54.02
PnL
-$276.77
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
Invested
$17.38
Value
$36.28
PnL
+$18.9
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$26.67
Value
$13.33
PnL
-$5.33
Record
55%
7125-5714 (12839)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.