Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$14.9K
$55.85
94¢ → 99.8¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Momo63 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $14.2K | $14.5K | +$333 | 93% 855-61 (916) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 79¢ | $156.42 | $159.96 | +$3.54 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 79¢ | $111.47 | $107.94 | -$3.53 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $40.29 | $39.02 | -$1.27 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 6¢ | $293.77 | $12.24 | -$281.53 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $7.88 | $10.16 | +$2.28 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 79¢ | $292.3 | $7.65 | +$3.35 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $0.3 | $0.3 | +$0 | 54% 6279-5320 (11599) |
Invested
$14,213.05
Value
$14.5K
PnL
+$333
Record
93%
855-61 (916)
Invested
$156.42
Value
$159.96
PnL
+$3.54
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
0xheavy888Invested
$111.47
Value
$107.94
PnL
-$3.53
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$40.29
Value
$39.02
PnL
-$1.27
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$293.77
Value
$12.24
PnL
-$281.53
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Invested
$7.88
Value
$10.16
PnL
+$2.28
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
VeryLucky888Invested
$292.3
Value
$7.65
PnL
+$3.35
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.3
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
6279-5320 (11599)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.