Stoke City FC vs. Preston North End FC: O/U 2.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$8.18

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 52.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares5,790

Combined PnL+$10.02

Under5 traders

Total Value$456.36

Total Shares971

Combined PnL-$1.84

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Overavg 52.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$10.48	50% 210-207 (417)
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494	Overavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0	54% 1263-1072 (2335)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 46.7¢	$218.06	$200.71	+$1.68	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 47.4¢	$191.78	$190.35	-$3.45	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
MA manoamano<$100	Overavg 54¢	$48.92	$48.01	-$0.45	51% 465-450 (915)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$31.96	$31.96	+$0	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$27.26	$27.26	+$0	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$6.08	$6.08	-$0.06	53% 15882-14070 (29952)

Kch-Temp

Over

Invested

$1,950.43

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$10.48

Record

50%

210-207 (417)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494

Over

Invested

$1,059.95

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

1263-1072 (2335)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$218.06

Value

$200.71

PnL

+$1.68

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$191.78

Value

$190.35

PnL

-$3.45

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

manoamano<$100

Over

Invested

$48.92

Value

$48.01

PnL

-$0.45

Record

51%

465-450 (915)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.96

Value

$31.96

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.26

Value

$27.26

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.08

Value

$6.08

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.