Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 96¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes96¢No4¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$26.54

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 95.5¢

+71% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$577.67

Total Shares1,023

Combined PnL+$4.71

No6 traders

Total Value$143.07

Total Shares668

Combined PnL-$31.25

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22	Yesavg 56¢	$559.99	$564.99	+$5	65% 1229-666 (1895)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$352.98	$300.44	-$52.54	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 76¢	$191.51	$187.73	-$3.78
└ No leg	Noavg 36.5¢	$161.47	$112.71	-$48.76
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 43.9¢	$100.17	$106.35	+$6.18	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
└ No leg	Noavg 43.9¢	$99.73	$59.02	+$8.1
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 77¢	$49.24	$47.33	-$1.92
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 43.1¢	$65.18	$82.89	+$17.72	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 41.7¢	$86.78	$41.65	-$45.13	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$9	$8.5	-$0.5	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$6.88	$7.06	+$0.18	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$9.93	$6.58	-$3.35	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 55.5¢	$11.66	$5.62	-$0.47	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$2.43	$2.27	-$0.16	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$1	$1.17	+$0.17	58% 18650-13710 (32360)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22

Yes

Invested

$559.99

Value

$564.99

PnL

+$5

Record

65%

1229-666 (1895)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$352.98

Value

$300.44

PnL

-$52.54

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

Both legs:

Yes$191.5176¢-$3.78

No$161.4736.5¢-$48.76

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$100.17

Value

$106.35

PnL

+$6.18

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Both legs:

No$99.7343.9¢+$8.1

Yes$49.2477¢-$1.92

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$65.18

Value

$82.89

PnL

+$17.72

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$86.78

Value

$41.65

PnL

-$45.13

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.88

Value

$7.06

PnL

+$0.18

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$9.93

Value

$6.58

PnL

-$3.35

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.66

Value

$5.62

PnL

-$0.47

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$2.43

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$0.16

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.17

PnL

+$0.17

Record

58%

18650-13710 (32360)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.