Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Preston North End FC, while the market favors Stoke City FC (82%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Stoke City FC (-1.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Preston North End FC (86%) · Preston North End FC at 19¢ · $958 held · ended Oct 31

Stoke City FC82¢Preston North End FC18¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Preston North End FC

Consensus Traders

Preston North End FC 86%

Total Value

$957.65

Combined PnL

-$189.76

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 18.5¢

-74% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPreston North End FC at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Preston North End FC

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Stoke City FC 82%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Stoke City FC82%

Preston North End FC19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Preston North End FC6 traders

Total Value$736.51

Total Shares1,295

Combined PnL-$186.96

Stoke City FC1 trader

Total Value$221.14

Total Shares560

Combined PnL-$2.8

Preston North End FC — 86%Stoke City FC — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Preston North End FCavg 74.2¢	$674.91	$559.33	-$115.58	59% 45810-32163 (77973)
SA Saber-greed	Stoke City FCavg 40¢	$223.94	$221.14	-$2.8	59% 2554-1782 (4336)
0xheavy888CTR	Preston North End FCavg 71¢	$142	$101	-$41	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Preston North End FCavg 69¢	$42.94	$30.06	-$10.93	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Preston North End FCavg 49¢	$24.5	$25.25	+$0.75	47% 4567-5072 (9639)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Preston North End FCavg 54¢	$34.57	$13.44	-$21.12	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
poshposhCTR<$100	Preston North End FCavg 53¢	$6.51	$7.44	+$0.92	59% 10160-7156 (17316)

UpTheBluesCTR

Preston North End FC

Invested

$674.91

Value

$559.33

PnL

-$115.58

Record

59%

45810-32163 (77973)

Saber-greed

Stoke City FC

Invested

$223.94

Value

$221.14

PnL

-$2.8

Record

59%

2554-1782 (4336)

0xheavy888CTR

Preston North End FC

Invested

$142

Value

$101

PnL

-$41

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Preston North End FC

Invested

$42.94

Value

$30.06

PnL

-$10.93

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Preston North End FC

Invested

$24.5

Value

$25.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

47%

4567-5072 (9639)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Preston North End FC

Invested

$34.57

Value

$13.44

PnL

-$21.12

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

poshposhCTR<$100

Preston North End FC

Invested

$6.51

Value

$7.44

PnL

+$0.92

Record

59%

10160-7156 (17316)

Research grade

AvoidPreston North End FC at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Preston North End FC

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Stoke City FC 82%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Preston North End FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.