Sheffield United FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 3.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (90%) · Under at 86¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 30

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 90%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$113.56

Smart Money Entry

76.6¢ → 86¢

+12% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares6,346

Combined PnL+$84.28

Over1 trader

Total Value$61

Total Shares122

Combined PnL+$29.28

Under — 90%Over — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 74.6¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$340.82	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
RN1	Underavg 82¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0.25	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 75¢	$608.87	$366.05	-$122.87	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 75¢	$501.07	$365.38	-$135.69	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 73.5¢	$210.17	$231.64	+$21.47	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 82¢	$206.64	$206.64	+$0	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
0xheavy888	Underavg 72¢	$196	$200	+$4	55% 7059-5661 (12720)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$31.72	$61	+$29.28	58% 28428-20989 (49417)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100	Underavg 75¢	$71.42	$47.62	-$23.81	54% 4856-4082 (8938)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 76¢	$7.76	$7.86	+$0.1	50% 10770-10596 (21366)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,341.7

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$340.82

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,192.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$608.87

Value

$366.05

PnL

-$122.87

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$501.07

Value

$365.38

PnL

-$135.69

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$210.17

Value

$231.64

PnL

+$21.47

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$206.64

Value

$206.64

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$196

Value

$200

PnL

+$4

Record

55%

7059-5661 (12720)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.72

Value

$61

PnL

+$29.28

Record

58%

28428-20989 (49417)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100

Under

Invested

$71.42

Value

$47.62

PnL

-$23.81

Record

54%

4856-4082 (8938)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$7.76

Value

$7.86

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.